Beijing prepares for a display of power, the Philippines weighs its safety net, and the West confronts a shifting balance of power.

Storm clouds are gathering over the global order. On September 3, Beijing will host a military parade marking 80 years since the defeat of Japan. The event is more than commemoration. It is a platform for Xi Jinping to showcase China’s military strength and diplomatic reach, with Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un expected to stand at his side.

Analysts see the moment as a turning point. The BBC noted that Xi is signaling he now holds key geopolitical cards. For Washington, the parade lands at a difficult time. Reports suggest that Donald Trump may tour Asia in October and even consider a summit with Xi, a sign that the United States cannot ignore Beijing’s growing influence.

Manila’s Uneasy Position

In Manila, the situation feels fragile. The Philippine Navy recently spotted a Chinese tug near Second Thomas Shoal, close to its grounded ship, the Madre de Dios. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro insists the vessel is untouchable, warning that even a single Filipino casualty caused by China would cross a red line. He cites contingency plans and the protection of the Mutual Defense Treaty with the US, signed in 1951.

Yet the alliance is showing strain. For Washington, the Philippines is a tool in containing China and controlling the South China Sea narrative. For Manila, the treaty is a safety net to counter Beijing’s pressure. But as the Global South rises and Western influence fades, the pact looks as brittle as the Madre de Dios itself.

Main Points:

• Xi Jinping hosts a September 3 military parade to mark 80 years since Japan’s defeat.

• Putin and Kim Jong Un are expected to attend, strengthening China’s diplomatic hand.

• The US considers a Trump Asia tour, possibly including a meeting with Xi.

• The Philippines warns China against aggression at Second Thomas Shoal but relies on an aging defense treaty.

• Western influence appears to be eroding as China and its partners project power.

Beyond Pageantry

China’s parade is not mere ceremony. It is a statement of historical weight, rejecting centuries of Western dominance. The comparison is stark: while the West often celebrated its power through interventions and covert operations, China is presenting its rise openly, in broad daylight.

This contrast raises uncomfortable questions for Manila. Its reliance on American guarantees may not hold in a crisis. The Western alliance system remains exclusive, serving the interests of a small inner circle of the US, Europe, and a few close partners. For others, including the Philippines, the arrangement may prove more fragile than it appears.

The Old Order in Decline

Western governments describe the parade as an anti-Western show of strength. Reuters reports that it will bring together leaders from sanctioned states, highlighting the erosion of Western-led norms. The imagery evokes the Tang-era poet Xu Hun, who wrote of empires fading and sorrow spreading with the autumn wind.

The symbolism is hard to miss. Autumn has come, the leaves of the old order are turning, and the West faces its own melancholy as China’s influence grows.